History, Economics, and Deja Vu

Does anyone else feel like the world is unraveling? It started with the rumblings about the real estate market and then the news media started using the word "recession". If that wasn't bad enough, there was horrible economic news for February with 100K job losses for a month (nice to know that I'm not alone) and then the whole Bear Stearns debacle.

Back in 2005, I read this book called, The Fourth Turning. I liked the theory that history repeats itself in a cyclical pattern but I didn't like where that pattern put us in terms of history. There also is a pattern of generations. So, here is a breakdown:

Generations:

The Prophet archetype is born in a High, enters young adulthood in an Awakening, midlife in an Unraveling, and elderhood in a Crisis.

The Nomad archetype is born in an Awakening, enters young adulthood in an Unraveling, midlife in a Crisis, and elderhood in a High.

The Hero archetype is born in an Unraveling, enters young adulthood in a Crisis, midlife in a High, and elderhood in an Awakening.

The Artist archetype is born in a Crisis, enters young adulthood in a High, midlife in an Awakening, and elderhood in an Unraveling.


The First Turning is a High —an upbeat era of strengthening institutions and weakening individualism, when a new civic order implants and the old values regime decays. Old Prophets disappear, Nomads enter elderhood, Heroes enter midlife, Artists enter young adulthood—and a new generation of Prophets is born.

The Second Turning is an Awakening —a passionate era of spiritual upheaval, when the civic order comes under attack from a new values regime. Old Nomads disappear, Heroes enter elderhood, Artists enter midlife, Prophets enter young adulthood—and a new generation of child Nomads is born.

The Third Turning is an Unraveling —a downcast era of strengthening individualism and weakening institutions, when the old civic order decays and the new values regime implants. Old Heroes disappear, Artists enter elderhood, Prophets enter midlife, Nomads enter young adulthood—and a new generation of child Heroes is born.

The Fourth Turning is a Crisis —a decisive era of secular upheaval, when the values regime propels the replacement of the old civic order with a new one. Old Artists disappear, Prophets enter elderhood, Nomads enter midlife, Heroes enter young adulthood—and a new generation of child Artists is born.

Basically, Baby Boomers are prophets. Gen X (born 1961-1981) are Nomads, Our grandparents are Heroes (born 1901-1924) or Artists (1925-1942). In theory, the kids born post 1982 are our new Hero generation. To put it in geek terms, Obi Wan was a prophet, Han Solo a Nomad, Luke and Leia were Heroes.

In recent history, 1946-1964 was a first turning, 1964-1984 a second. We're somewhere in a third turning and you know what that means, right? We're in for some kind of crisis/upheaval. From the way things are looking financially, I wouldn't be surprised if it's an economic upheaval.

There has been debate amongst Fourth Turning readers whether 9/11 was the catalyst that has kicked us into a 4th Turning. The general consensus is that it wasn't and we're still stuck in a 3rd Turning unraveling. Looking at the 2008 candidates, we have a Gen Xer (Obama), a Boomer (Clinton) and Artist (McCain). So, if we are headed towards a crisis, we can look back to see how we survived the last one, WWII. Well, we had Prophet then Nomad presidents, Roosevelt then Truman.